Is it really that crazy to think the Mets can win the NL East?
Hey, the New York Mets didn’t hire Brodie Van Wagenen to be just another conventional general manager. They could have gone with the latest 30-something prodigy from Harvard or Yale if they wanted to do that.
(OK, Van Wagenen went to Stanford, the “Harvard of the West” except with a prettier campus.)
The longtime player agent was an out-of-the-box hire by Jeff Wilpon, the much-criticized COO of the Mets (dad Fred is the majority owner), and the new 44-year-old general manager has proved in less than two months on the job that he’s not afraid of the big move and not afraid to act quickly. In one sense, that already separates him from most of his peers.
Van Wagenen engineered the blockbuster deal with the Mariners that brought in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, he signed free-agent reliever Jeurys Familia, he may or may not have discussed a trade or trades involving Noah Syndergaard for J.T. Realmuto, and after ditching that idea, signed free-agent catcher Wilson Ramos. The Mets have shored up three of their biggest holes from 2018: the bullpen, catcher and infield depth.
Now throw in a little smack talk.
“Internally, we would argue that we’re the favorites in the division right now,” Van Wagenen told SNY network.
Get the tabloid headlines ready!
I love it.
I mean, the New York media is going to have a field day with this. That’s OK. Stealing some attention away from the Yankees is always a good thing. Yes, “internally” is a little vague. Did Van Wagenen mean This is just our collective feeling right now in the front office? Did he mean No, seriously, we’ve run the analysis through 10,000 simulations on our propriety projection system and it says we’re the best team in the NL East? Or did he mean Jeff Wilpon told me to say this? Or maybe he just accidentally spoke out loud in his quiet voice.
Here’s the thing: It’s not that crazy of a thing to say. He didn’t predict a division title. He didn’t refer to any of the Mets’ rivals as an Evil Empire or refer to the Red Sox as the Golden State Warriors of baseball as Brian Cashman did during the 2017 offseason when Boston got Chris Sale. In the annals of ridiculous things people in a front office might say, this isn’t so outrageous.
Like I said, it’s not even that silly. According to the latest projections at FanGraphs, the Mets are the second-best team in the division:
Nationals: 91-71
Mets: 85-77
Braves: 82-80
Phillies: 79-83
Marlins: 68-94
Of course, it’s early in the offseason. The Phillies are certainly not done and the Braves may have a couple of moves on the margins (or maybe they’ll surprise us and trade for Realmuto or Corey Kluber) and maybe that projection is a little soft. The Nationals have signed Patrick Corbin and upgraded their bullpen and catcher, but may still sign a second baseman and you never know what will happen with Bryce Harper. In other words, the rosters are far from set, so let’s not print any playoff tickets just yet.
I also like what Van Wagenen has done. Yes, the Cano/Diaz trade has a chance to backfire if Jarred Kelenic, the team’s first-round pick in 2018, develops into a star and Diaz blows out his elbow and Cano gets old overnight. Everyone trashed the Cano part of the trade, ignoring the fact that he’s actually still a good player and hit very well (.317/.363/.497) after he returned from his 80-game suspension for taking a banned substance. Even playing just half the season, he was worth 3.2 WAR and while he’s 36, he has those quick hands and baseball instincts that suggest he should remain productive for at least two or three more seasons. Yes, the last couple of years of the contract may not look good, but in dumping Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, the Mets’ payroll wasn’t adversely affected for the first couple of years.
Plus, roster flexibility is so important these days and now the Mets can slide Jeff McNeil into a utility role or maybe he takes over at third base if Todd Frazier continues to decline. Or maybe Cano slides over to first base if Peter Alonso isn’t ready. The Mets were 28th in the majors in bullpen ERA and now should have one of the best combos in the game in Familia and Diaz. (On the strength of those two additions, FanGraphs currently rates the Mets’ bullpen third best in the majors.) Ramos has been one of the best-hitting catchers and provides a significant upgrade over what the Mets received in 2018 (.208/.297/.355).
All this is to say that Van Wagenen hasn’t acted irrationally or tried to do too much too soon, like A.J. Preller did a few years ago in his first year with the Padres, when he foolishly traded for Matt Kemp, traded away Trea Turner and overpaid for James Shields. The Padres went from 77 wins to 74 wins.
While most GMs worry about trading away the wrong prospect, or giving one year too many for a free agent, or are hamstrung by restrictive payroll constraints, they are often paralyzed into non-action. Van Wagenen’s boldness has been a welcome change of pace.
Still: 85 wins isn’t going to win the division. What’s your next move, Brodie?