Fitch unit: Duterte allies likely to win Senate control
Next year’s mid-term elections could allow President Rodrigo Duterte’s allies to take control of the Senate and facilitate a shift to federalism, a Fitch unit said.
This would also provide a boost to the policymaking process but at the same time weaken the country’s system of checks and balances, Fitch Fitch Solutions Macro Research said in a report released last week.
“The upcoming May 2019 mid-term elections … could see the Senate fill up with allies of President Duterte, given that the opposition Liberal Party has been weakened considerably,” it said.
“This would facilitate Duterte’s plan to move the country towards
federalism,” it added.
Twelve out of the Senate’s 24 seats will be contested next year and Fitch Solutions said that lawmakers aligned with the ruling PDP-Laban party would likely control the chamber after the vote.
No single party currently dominates the Senate and Fitch Solutions noted that this was a factor in the May ouster of Senate President Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel, the PDP-Laban president, in favor of Vicente “Tito” Sotto 3rd of the Nationalist People’s Coalition.
“[I]t is likely that majority of senators believe that Sotto will be more assertive of the rights of the Senate as an independent chamber of Congress and balance the interests of senators regardless of political affiliations,” Fitch Solutions said.
This could change next year, however, as Duterte has gone after his staunchest critics in the Senate and the Liberal Party is struggling to field a 12-man slate for the elections. Senator Lilia de Lima has been jailed on drug-related charges and Senator Antonio Trillianes, a former coup leader, has been threatened with arrest after Duterte revoked an amnesty issued by his predecessor.
“This may stifle the voice of the opposition as lawmakers could be deterred from speaking up against President Duterte out of fear,” Fitch Solutions said.
Control of the Senate would allow the President to pursue his federalism agenda, which has found little support among the current crop of senators. Policymaking will also be facilitated but a win for Duterte’s allies “would pose downside risks to the system of checks and balances,” the Fitch unit said.
“The dominance of the executive branch poses a threat to the principles of separation of power and independence of each government body,” it added, noting that it had already observed a decline in the freedom of the press and that the recent ouster of Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno had cast doubts on the judiciary’s independence.
Duterte’s having allied with the Marcos family and former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo “to compensate for his shallow political network at the national level”, Fitch Solutions continued, “may further entrench political dynasties … [and]likely limit political diversity within Philippine democracy over time.”
The Fitch unit also noted Duterte’s support for defeated vice-presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his denigration of Vice-President Leni Robredo, the current Liberal Party leader.
FROM A REPORT BY ED VELASCO
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