UBS maintains PH growth forecast for 2018
SWISS investment bank UBS kept its economic growth forecast for the Philippines this year but trimmed its projection for 2019 due to the possible impact of the trade wars on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
In a report released on Wednesday, UBS said the Philippine gross domestic product should still grow by 6.8 percent this year before dipping to 6.4 percent next year, lower than its previous forecast of 6.6 percent.
The estimates are lower than the government’s official 7.0-8.0 percent growth target. In 2017, actual growth was recorded at 6.7 percent.
UBS said it now believed that an escalation of US-China trade tensions, with a meaningful fallout on growth, was more likely than not.
“In light of the downward revisions to our US and Chinese growth forecasts on trade tensions, we revise lower our growth forecasts for Asean economies,” it said.
Nevertheless, UBS pointed out that the more open economies of Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia would see a more significant impact than the “more closed” economies of the Philippines and Indonesia. MAYVELIN U. CARABALLO
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