Peso to finish the year at P54:$1 – BMI Research
The Philippine peso is looking both technically and fundamentally “bearish,” BMI Research said as it revised its end-2018 forecast for currency to a much lower P54 against the US dollar.
In a report released on Wednesday, the Fitch Group unit noted that the peso remained the worst-performing currency in the region, having weakened by more than 7 percent against the greenback year to date.
It said the peso remained vulnerable given negative real interest rates as headline inflation — at 4.6 percent in
May — was significantly above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy rate of 3.50 percent.
“Technically, the PHP is looking bearish after breaking through support at around the PHP53.20/USD level,” BMI said.
“We see the next level of possible backstop at around PHP53.70/USD, followed by at approximately PHP56/USD if the support fails to hold,” it added.
The peso, which fell to the P53:$1 level earlier this month, closed at P53.475:$1 on Wednesday, down half a centavo from the previous day.
“Given that technicals and fundamentals on balance are pointing to further weakness, we are revising our forecast for the PHP to end the year around PHP54/USD, from PHP51/USD previously…,” BMI said.
It also forecast the peso to average P52.59 per dollar this year from P51.95:$1 in the first half.
The Fitch unit said it was holding a neutral view on the local currency over the longer term as strong and stable remittances would likely support the currency, partially offsetting higher inflation and a wider trade deficit.
On the positive side, large and stable remittance inflows — accounting for more than 10 percent of gross domestic product — to provide support for the external account and the currency.
Latest data showed that personal remittances rose 4 percent to $10.426 billion during the first four months of 2018.
“On the negative side, inflation and inflation expectations have risen considerably over the last two years and are likely to remain elevated relative to the US,” BMI, added.
It forecast Philippine inflation to average higher at 4 percent this year, versus an average of 2.1 percent in the US, as sustained high credit growth would put upside pressure on core inflation.
Should there be a lack of a corresponding productivity gains in the export sector, BMI pointed out that this would necessitate allowing the peso to weaken against the dollar to prevent a loss of competitiveness.
Although the Philippines can boast of strong economic growth, it said that a rising trade deficit as a result of President Rodrigo Duterte’s expansionary fiscal policy had not been offset by a corresponding inflow of foreign direct investment through the financial account.
“The shortfall is set to persist as the USD180 billion infrastructure plan pushes up imports and weigh on the PHP,” BMI added.
The government, which is targeting 7.0-8.0 percent gross domestic product growth for 2018, is banking on its “Build Build Build” program to provide the impetus.
At least 35 flagship projects have been approved and are ready for execution, while 10 will move for the construction stage this year.
The ambitious infrastructure program will be bankrolled by tax reforms and concessional loans, with the overall budget expected to hit up to P9 trillion by 2022.
BMI said that risks to its peso forecast were weighted to the downside as it acknowledged that the outbreak of a full-blown US-China trade war could lead to an increase in risk-off sentiment globally and emerging market assets were likely to bear the brunt of the capital flight to safety.
It expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep pace with the US Federal Reserve and hike interest rates by an additional 25 basis points over the remainder of 2018.
The BSP’s policymaking Monetary Board has so far raised key interest rates by a total of 50 basis points, bringing the central bank’s overnight borrowing, lending and deposit rates to 3.5 percent, 4.0 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.
“Should the BSP fail to deliver a corresponding rate hike or the US Fed hike interest rates more aggressively than expected, the peso could fall further against the dollar,” BMI said.
The post Peso to finish the year at P54:$1 – BMI Research appeared first on The Manila Times Online.